1

Topic: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Here's the inciweb link: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/5409/40048/

2

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Basically the FS has let this one go. I posted six weeks ago that the eightmile and Lost River drainages should be the priority.. If it gets in the upper valley it will be catastrophic.

Bruce Herron Wolf Creek

3

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

“From the start, the extreme terrain and fuel loading has limited the direct response actions that might normally be taken to put out a fire,” said Agency Administrator, Erin Uloth. “Crews have been working for weeks to protect our communities and we will continue to do so where it is safe to engage this fire.”

karlukkid, to be fair, I believe they have been working very hard on this fire.  There is much that we are not privy to.  What are you basing your comment "Basically the FS has let this one go." on?

Susan Finn, Twisp WA

4

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Look at the results.

Bruce Herron Wolf Creek

5 (edited by bumper 09/05/17 2:30 PM)

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

finns I agree with you. I am looking at the results and I think it a minor miracle that the firefighters got the fire stopped in the eightmile drainage. Without that stop it would probably be in the Chewuch drainage. Also, Its not like they have no other fires to deal with. My only criticism of the forest service is that they didn't ban campfires in early July.

Dean Kurath

6

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Post deleted for rules violation.  Full names please.

7

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

90 percent of the reason we are in such a mess with respect to forest health and fire safety is eight decades of active fire suppression.  It boggles the mind how the solution to eight decades of active fire suppression could be ... more active fire suppression.

There is a saying about organizations that when they don't know what to do, they do what they know.

David Bonn

8 (edited by mr_coffee 09/06/17 9:41 AM)

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Has anybody else thought about how just plain bizarre the Diamond Creek fire has been?

Historically large fires in this area track west to east.  Sometimes with a strong northeast tilt (30 Mile, Tripod, Farewell).  Sometimes with a tilt to the southeast (Carlton Complex).  Sometimes they shoot due East (Needle Creek, Twisp River). 

I can't recall any large fire in this area that put out tentacles in four different directions.  I also can't recall any large fire in this area that has jumped over or into multiple burned-over areas (at least three so far).

David Bonn

9

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

I wasn't able to attend the meeting at the barn last night and have been unable to find out what was covered. Was there any new insight into what is planned for fighting the fire (hopefully) more actively?

10 (edited by mr_coffee 09/07/17 1:45 PM)

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

I'll give an executive summary:

Fire personnel are concerned about this fire and the extreme behavior it has shown.  The 4-5 mile runs from the Ashnola into the Cathedral Lakes basin are considered a harbinger of things to come.

They have built an elaborate series of fire lines from the Chewuch Road to the Lost River road.  These lines are 5-10 miles south of the active fire perimeter.  If they have an opportunity (due to favorable winds) they will start a backfire to secure the community from a wildfire catastrophe.

Upper Eightmile Creek is described as "cold".

At the moment the portion of the fire that most threatens homes and private property is the area around Butte Pass in upper Monument Creek.  The concern is with the cold front due to be passing through tonight we could have winds out of the north that will push the fire down Monument Creek to the homes around Lost River.

Nationally wildland firefighting resources are fully allocated.  That's what "preparedness level 5" really means.   What that means for us is that unless we are visited with terrifying mayhem we are unlikely to receive additional help.

David Bonn

11

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Thank you for the synopsis! Hopefully those lines don't get tested. I guess we can pray for rain and rake pine needles.

12

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Here is a current map of the Diamond Fire. The southward growth in upper Monument Creek seems anomalous, compared with the prevailing wind and the westward growth in the Ashnola, although admittedly that is driven by fuel.

In my experience, fires in our area tend to track north more than west, but yes, east and south is still a bit anomalous. Exceptions can occur when we have fronts come in that can push south. For example Tripod moved continuously northward a half mile a day for 90 days, except for two days of extreme wind when it moved southward 2 miles. These are approximate figures BTW.

Map here:
okanogan1.com/ecology/webfire/

-Be prepared-
George Wooten

13

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

https://www.facebook.com/diamondcreekfire2017/

Aerial reconnaissance this afternoon over the Diamond Creek Fire reports the fire has backed into the Monument Creek drainage and is approximately 1-1 1/2 miles from the Level 2 action decision line.

Ray Peterson - Winthrop

14

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

I have read the posts on this thread and wonder if anyone has been or knows anyone who has been up at Harts Pass. It is not in the closed area and I met some backpackers recently who said it was fine to camp up there and there was not smoke. Has anyone or do you know of anyone who has been up there in the last 2 days. The FS people at the meeting the other night said it was not a closed area and this is fine to go there, but the fire can change things rather quickly and I can't find any updated info on inciweb. Thanks!

15

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

I have been up there a couple times in the past three weeks. Last time was this past Sunday. There was no smoke and amazing views of the smoke plume to the east. It was early in the day. On the way back down the smoke was drifting back up. I think you will find it variable with different wind pattens. Looks like it may clear out for the next day or two.  Probably not the place to be on a REALLY active fire day since there is only one way out.

John Harter
Mazama

16

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

In response to Mazama John, "... REALLY active fire day..." This is what I am trying to determine if today and tomorrow is that kind of day. Inciweb has not been updated since the 6th and I spoke to the FS at the community meeting and they did not voice concern, but what is the fire doing now is my question to help determine if it is an active fire day(s). And when up there, how will we know how active it is? I don't have a smart phone or data to check.

17

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

@Lilacs and Larks. I was at Hart's Pass and hiked through to Rainy on Tuesday 9/5. Lots of smoke, no views the entire 31 miles.

18

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Thanks for that information KeriGeorge. Was there about the same amount of smoke at Rainy Pass? We are trying to figure out where to backpack for just 2 nights. Thanks!

19

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

https://www.facebook.com/diamondcreekfire2017/

Due to continued growth of the Diamond Creek Fire, the Forest Service may need to implement Fire Evacuations that will affect campers in the Mazama and Early Winters area.

If there is a Level 2 Evacuation, campgrounds in the Mazama and Early Winters area will be closed.

A large portion of the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest north and west of the town of Mazama is presently under Level 1 Evacuation. The Forest Service requests that campers and hikers stay abreast of fire information and consider voluntarily relocating if fire behavior increases.

Ray Peterson - Winthrop

20 (edited by mr_coffee 09/08/17 6:03 PM)

Re: Lost River, Mazama & Rendezvous on Level one:

Some numbers:

80 -- Number of large wildfires currently burning in the West

27254 -- Number of firefighters fighting said fires

6 -- Number of firefighters who have died this year fighting wildfire

4 -- Number of Very Large Air Tankers available in the US (1 747, 3 DC-10)

23 -- Number of Large Air Tankers available in the US

34 -- Number of Type I helicopters on contract for firefighting in 2017

David Bonn